As regulation tightens while customer and investor expectations for green logistics grow, more shippers want to reduce their emissions. Only precise data can inform effective decarbonisation. Yet, analysis by Lune reveals that industry-standard calculations are overestimating emissions by 86% on average.
Lune analysed over 100 real shipments, using vessel-specific emission factors and tracked vessel distances via satellite technology. It then re-ran the same calculations using industry-standard inputs: the emissions factor for a “generic container ship” and the shortest feasible distance.
The analysis revealed significant overestimation by the standard method. On average, industry-standard emissions estimates were inflated by 0.42 tCO₂e per TEU.
Erik Stadigh, co-founder and CEO of Lune, called this result "unsurprising", adding that industry-standard emission factors rely on averages that are deliberately conservative to avoid the financial and reputational risks associated with underestimation.
Figure 1: Vessel-specific (AIS) emissions per TEU are consistently lower and more variable; Generic/Shortest clusters are high and tight, often overstating.“Precision dictates how you action logistics emissions data. Industry-standard estimates are adequate for compliance with the EU CSRD, for example. However, if your goal is to reduce emissions, this data is worthless as it disregards the details required to inform action. This is where Lune’s emissions intelligence comes in — it collects these details without increasing costs to make green logistics attainable.”
Isolating the impact of emission factors
Lune’s analysis went further to isolate the impact of using generic vs. vessel-specific emission factors. The result? Using a “generic container ship” inflated emissions by an average of 0.47 tCO₂e per TEU, with major implications for businesses exposed to future carbon pricing.
Figure 2: The generic/shortest method nearly always overstates emissions per TEU, with a mean gap of ~0.42 tCO₂e/TEU and some cases approaching +1.2 tCO₂e/TEU.Futureproofing for a low carbon logistics future
The logistics industry is at a turning point
“We’re seeing the industry mature from treating emissions as a tickbox compliance exercise to reducing them. Eighty-three logistics companies, including JAS Worldwide, CEVA Logistics, and Forto, have set net zero targets with the SBTi. While the macroeconomic climate waivers, the commitment to sustainability does not. As with any strategic opportunity, LSPs must stay abreast, or they’ll sink.”
As regulation tightens and consumer and investor expectations mature, companies will demand increasingly precise emissions data. Industry standards must evolve.
Those still relying on high-level averages risk non-compliance, inflated carbon taxes, and ineffective decarbonisation. They need to secure their place in a low carbon future — and that’s where Lune’s emissions intelligence comes in.
Emissions intelligence (EI) uses AI and advanced technologies to deliver precise and actionable emissions data, insights, and forecasts — without the need for complex, manual inputs. It eliminates barriers created by data gaps, empowering organisations to achieve sustainability goals with confidence.
To learn more about what’s driving green logistics, download Lune’s guide: Greening the supply chain.
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